Implementasi Metode Brown’s Double Exponential Smoothing Dalam Peramalan Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) Kota Tanjungpinang

Abstract

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an index in measures the average price change over time of the types of goods and services used or consumed by residents in urban areas for the basis of a certain period. Changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which from time to time indicate the level of increase (inflation) or the rate of decline (deflation) of prices for goods and services. The value of the Tanjungpinang City Consumer Price Index (CPI), which has been calculated and published at the beginning of each month by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) tends to increase continuously every month, indicating that the data pattern is experiencing an upward trend. Brown's Double Exponential Smoothing method is one of the time series forecasting methods used in forecasting trend-patterned data. Therefore, in this study, we will use Brown's Double Exponential Smoothing method in forecasting the Tanjungpinang City Consumer Price Index (CPI). The purpose of this study is to determine the forecasting of the Tanjungpinang City Consumer Price Index from January to December 2022 with the parameter which produces the smallest error using the Brown's Double Exponential Smoothing method. The best parameter used for forecasting CPI in Tanjungpinang City is 0.51 with a MAPE value of 1.11083%. The results of the Tanjungpinang City CPI forecast from January to December 2022 show that it is increasing every month.