Evaluation and Projection of Airport Landing Movement Areas based on Statistical Analyses, ICAO 2013 Manuals and KM 44, 2002 Regulation

This article demonstrated how to calculate an airport landing movement in systematic five main stages encompassing; (i) data collection (including passengers data, aircraft movements, population, GDP, per capita income, cargos movement, temperatures, ground elevation, slope surface, wind speed, and aircraft characteristics), (ii) forecasting the future traffic demands, (iii) calculating aerodrome reference field length (ARFL), (iv) define aerodrome reference code (ARF), and (v) calculate runway dimensions, taxiways, and apron areas. This article has selected Hang Nadim International Airport (HIA) as a case study. It was identified that the aircraft movements in this airport have increased by an average of 7.30% every year in the periods of 2007 to 2016. This Airport has an existing apron with a capacity of 13 aircraft, while the apron currently has to accommodate 19 aircraft. Therefore, to anticipate future demand. This research evaluated and forecasted the requirements standard for the airport landing movement areas in 2026. Based on the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) 2013 manuals and KM 44, 2002 regulation concerning the National Airport Regulation. This article recommended that the existing runway and taxiways would be adequate to facilitate future aircraft movements up to 2026. However, the apron requires to be expanded to 1,600 m x 150 m (which a capacity of 31 aircraft) for accommodating the apron requirements standard in 2026.


Introduction
It was acknowledged that the constant growth in the air traffic movements in the airport in Indonesia over the past decade has increased the requirement for the development of the airport facilities and infrastructures [1]. It was identified that there were 7 airports which accounted for the highest cargo loads in Indonesia such as; Soekarno-Hatta International Airport, Sultan Hasanuddin International Airport, Kuala Namu International Airport, Hang Nadim International Airport, Juanda International Airport, Sentani Airport, and Sultan Aji Muhammad Sulaiman Airport [1]. In fact, from 2007 to 2016 the Hang Nadim International aircraft movements increased by an average of 7.30% every year [2].
The capacity of an airport depends on the capacities of its landside and airside components in accommodating passenger movements, cargo and aircraft takeoff, and airport landing movements [3]. Based on Laplacea, et al. (2016), the population growth, GDP, and the fluctuation of the per capita incomes in a specific region may affect airport traffic movements [4].
An airport configuration may encompass various landing movement facilities such as runway, taxiway, and apron [5]. A runway is a rectangular area on the airport surface that is prepared to accommodate the takeoff and landing of aircraft. Taxiways are defined paths on the airfield surface which are established for the taxiing of aircraft. Taxiways are also intended to provide a linkage between one part of the airfield to another one. The apron is defined as an area for facilitating the aircraft to park, to check its instrument and engine prior to takeoff [5,6,7].
Hang Nadim International Airport is located in Batam City, Indonesia. In 2016, the Hang Nadim Airport has a single runway (with the existing dimensions of 4015 m x 45 m), 2 exit taxiways (150m x 23 m), and 2 rapid exit taxiways (300m x 23m). The existing apron has dimensions of 690.5 m x 76.8 m and 240 m x 150 m with the capacity of 13 aircraft. The largest type of operating aircraft that can be operated on this runway and apron were Boeing 737-900. It was projected that the apron of this airport may accommodate 19 aircraft in 2020 [2]. Therefore, the existing apron is in a need to be expanded.

Materials and Methods
The Hang Nadim International Airport (coordinates of 01 '07 '15 "NL and 04˚06'50" EL) is located in Batam City, Kepulauan Riau Province, Indonesia. The location of this airport is ± 7 km from the downtown of Batam City (Figure 1). This article calculated airport landing movement areas in the five main stages such as; (i) collecting data (previous passengers' data, aircraft movements, population, GDP, per capita income, cargo, temperatures, elevation, gradient, wind speed, and aircraft characteristics), (ii) forecasting the future traffic demands, (iii) calculate aerodrome reference field length (ARFL), (iv) defines aerodrome reference code (ARF), and (v) calculate runway dimensions, taxiways, and apron areas. This article has chosen a Hang Nadim International Airport (HIA) as a case study as this airport is considered one of the largest airports in Sumatra Island.

Forecasting
Forecasting is a process of predicting future events [8,9]. In the planning and decision-making processes, the prediction of future events is very crucial in making logical and rational decisions [10,11,12]. Therefore, forecasting is essential for making the appropriate decision in the development of airport landing movement areas. Prior to forecast airport landing movement areas (encompassing runway, taxiways, and apron) some of the following data such as passengers' data, aircraft movements, population, GDP, per capita income, and cargo should be obtained (Table 1). The passengers and aircraft movement in 2026 is projected with the multi-linear and linear regression approaches. It was identified that in 10 years the number of passengers increased 300 times, aircraft movements increased by 200% as well as cargo one. The number of aircraft in peak hours have been also increased by 200%.

Linear Regression
Linear regression analysis is one of the most commonly used statistical methods for modeling cross-section data [10,11]. In regression modeling, there are two kinds of variables, dependent variable (variables that are influenced or value depend on other variables) and independent variable (which is suspected to affect the dependent variable) [10,11]. The linear regression is formulated as follows:

Airport Configurations for Landing Movement Area
The airport configurations for landing movement areas have an important role in the airport operation and maintenance purposes. These landing movements may encompass 2 major elements such as airport airside and airport landside areas. Both areas have been designed based on the operating characteristics of the operating aircraft. On the airside, the representative aircraft will determine the runway of taxiways [6,7,12,13,14]. The regulations applied for evaluation and design of runway and taxiways utilized the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) 2013 manuals and KM 44, 2002 regulation concerning the National Airport Regulation.

Runway
A runway was designed based on the operating aircraft standards which normally utilized the longest Aeroplane Reference Field Length (ARFL). The length of the minimum runway is affected by the local conditions of the airport, such as temperature, elevation, and slope.

Lro = ARFL x Ft x Fe x Fs
(3) Where: Lro = corrected Runway Length (m) Ft = temperature correction factor Fe = elevation correction factor Fs = slope correction factor

Taxiway
The major function of taxiways is to provide landside access for aircraft to travel from the runways to other areas of the airport such as from runways to the apron, runway to another runway, etc. The widths of taxiways are designed according to the type of the operated aircraft. Specifically the wingspan of the designated aircraft [7,12,13,14].

Apron
An apron area will accommodate several aircraft to a board and un-board depends on the aircraft types during peak hours [7]. The planning of the apron depends on the wingspan and the length of each type of aircraft referring to ICAO Annex 14, 2013 [7,15].

Results and Discussions
The results will be discussed in 3 subsections, such as forecasting results, evaluation, and projection of the movement area, and pavement

Forecasting results
The forecasting result is shown in the table below: The increase in the number of passengers and aircraft movements by 150% to 200% in 10 years period (2017-2026) indicated that the existing airside facilities require to be developed. It was forecasted that in 2026 there would be more than 9.48 million passengers utilized this airport, with 73 thousand aircrafts movement, 56 tons of cargo, and 31 aircraft will park in apron per hour. Hence, at the average 150% increase in traffic demand and the number of aircraft in peak hours in 10 years (2017-2026). Thus, there would be necessary to calculate the future requirement of runway, taxiways, and apron to meet the increase of the traffic demand within this airport

Movement Area
Movement area is the part of an aerodrome to be used for the take-off, landing, and taxiing of aircraft, consisting of the maneuvering areas (runway and taxiways), and the apron [7,15]. The characteristics of the operating aircraft within Hang Nadim International Airport are shown in the table 3.

Runway
The analysis of the runway is performed based on two types of aircraft. First, the operating aircraft which has the longest airplane reference field length (ARFL), namely B 737 -800 (2256 m). Second, B 747 -300, the largest aircraft operated in 2026 with ARFL of 3320 m (future planning). Based on the existing local conditions, it was identified that the calculation result of corrected Runway Length, was as follow: elevation correction factor (Fe) = 1,0091; temperature correction factor (Ft) = 1,153; slope correction factor (Fs) = 1,004. The existing runway of Hang Nadim Airport is 4025 m (>3878 m). Therefore, the existing runway is no need to be expanded until 2026.
The aim of this aerodrome reference code (ARC) is as a simple method for interrelating the number of aerodrome specifications to its requirement facilities suitable to accommodate the operated airplanes. The ARC contains 3 main elements such as; code number, code element 1 (the airplane performance characteristics (ARFL), and code element 2 (dimensions of wingspan and outer main wheel gear). Based on table 4 the type of this Hang Nadim Airport runway is 4 E as the runway length > 1800 m and B 747 -300, wingspan = 59,6 m (wingspan <65), .and length = 56,30 m

Taxiway
Based on Annex 14 2013, the evaluation of the existing taxiway is no need to be expanded until 2026. The existing taxiways are 2 exit taxiways with dimensions of 150 m x 23 m and 2 rapid exit taxiways with dimensions of 300 m x 23 m. The following table was the taxiway's dimensions as on Table 5 below. As the taxiways and runway are no need to be expanded, the current condition of these landing movements is no need to be re-designed up to 2026.

Apron
The existing Hang Nadim Airport has an apron area with the capacities for accommodating 13 aircrafts such as B747-SP, B737-900, dan F27. In fact, in 2016 (when this research was conducted), the apron has to be able to accommodate 19 aircraft. The calculation of existing apron requirements in 2016 was shown in the table below:  According to the aircraft's peak hours projection in 2026, the apron is designed to accommodate 31 aircraft (table 2). Then, it was calculated that the future apron in 2026 would require the extension areas as follow (Table 6):

Conclusion
The existing Hang Nadim Airport runway 2016 was 4025 m. This runway is able to accommodate